Left guard Ben Bredeson, a free agent addition on a one-year deal, was one of three gambles the Bucs made this season along the interior of their offensive line. Along with gambling that right guard Cody Mauch would take a big step forward in his second season and Graham Barton would be able to successfully transition from left tackle in the Atlantic Coast Conference to center in the NFL, the Bucs decided that the former spot starter, Bredeson, would be able to not only man, but upgrade the Bucs left guard position.
Now 15 weeks into the season and it looks like Tampa Bay hit blackjack. Bredeson is not a world beater. His transformation this year is not a Mekhi Becton-like worst-to-first story where he has all of a sudden become one of the best guards in football. Take a look at his Pro Football Focus profile. Whatever you may think about their grades, they tend to be directionally accurate over large sample sizes. And with the season just about in the bag, it turns out Ben Bredeson has been a league average guard.
Among 61 qualifying guards Bredeson ranks:
Let’s look at that data with some context. First of all, before you get your arms up about PFF’s grading system let’s get two things out of the way.
First off, grades in the mid-50s are indicative of someone who plays just below average. We are talking about the Tampa Bay offensive lineman with the lowest ceiling of the five. Just below average is a pretty solid mark when you consider this is the weak link of a weak link system. I beg of you to look at the dozens of NFL teams with multiple players of this ilk starting along their front. There are quite a few.
Secondly, when you start to understand just how many offensive linemen grade out in this range it starts to take hold that Bredeson is more average than below. Ignore the numbers and look at where he ranks among his peers. Given 61 qualifying players, Bredeson ranks at near or above the midpoint in in four of the seven areas.
Finding His Best Place
The Bucs are finding a role for Ben Bredeson as four of his top six performances have come since Week 7. He has been a key contributor to the team’s success in the run game as offensive coordinator Liam Coen has embraced his “players, not plays” mantra with not just the skill position players, but also his offensive line. Coen has unleashed Bredeson as a puller/wrapper and used him to demolish linebackers and safeties as Tampa Bay’s run game has averaged 163.7 rushing yards per game since Week 5 and 192 since their Week 11 bye.
.@Buccaneers @chargers @BuckyIrving with a perfectly executed Counter Trey by everyone involved. Coaching + Talent. Bucs getting stronger. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/hSdhkLrx58
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) December 16, 2024
Bredeson is not the most technically sound and his anchor is average at best. He will have trouble with good defensive tackles. But there is still room for him to grow. He and left tackle Tristan Wirfs are still finding their way together communicating against stunts and games. If they can work through that you could see Bredeson’s pressure rate allowed drop from the high 4% range to the high 3% – low 4% area.
But make no mistake, Bredeson has been a value-add and an upgrade for this line over last year’s composite of Aaron Stinnie and Matt Feiler. And he’s doing it for the modest sum of $3 million.
Looking To The Future With Ben Bredeson
Bucs G Ben Bredeson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Bucs should absolutely look to keep Ben Bredeson in the fold next year. He’s earned a raise from this year’s salary, but not one that will price him out of Tampa Bay’s market or their long-term plans. He’s not a player that a team wants sign to a multi-year deal.
Another one-year pact would make the most sense for any team as this is shaping up to be a career year for him that, again, amounts to somewhere around league average. Those aren’t the players who get multi-year commitments.
And the team is high on backup rookie Elijah Klein, who they selected in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. They should have a viable path forward for Klein to develop and eventually win the starting role in the future if he is able to ascend as they hope. You don’t want to cap that potential with a significant financial commitment to the weakest link on the line.
But Bredeson shouldn’t represent a significant financial commitment. Even with his improved pay this year I have him projected for a one-year contract that would top out at $5 million. More likely his true valuation will come in around $4.5 million.
Bucs OL Cody Mauch, Ben Bredeson, Tristan Wirfs and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
That’s a deserved raise of 50% over the veteran’s 2024 salary but does not represent a sum that would lock him into a starting role if his play were to decline in 2025. It also would not guarantee him a starting role in training camp and could give the Bucs the opportunity to allow him and Klein to have a camp battle as they did this year with Bredeson and Sua Opeta.
And if Klein wins the job? Having a swing guard/center at $5 million is not money wasted.
The Bucs will likely lose backup center/guard Robert Hainsey to an opportunity to start elsewhere next year. He’s likely to find his own Bredeson situation outside of Tampa Bay. That means the team is going to need quality depth to help patch in when starters go down.
Just this year the Bucs have lost starting offensive linemen for a total of six games already. They have largely weathered those losses due to quality play from Hainsey and tackle Justin Skule. If Bredeson were to lose a camp battle to Klein, he would represent a similar quality player to “break glass in case of emergency” for.
Understanding Roster Construction
Teams know it is impossible to have All-Pros at every position. They understand that building a roster of 25-27 starters and another 26-28 backups under a capped-allocation system means there will be trade-offs.
Some teams try to find their way with a “stars and scrubs” approach, while others attempt a “good quality, low ceiling” approach. No matter how you slice it, every roster needs a few average-ish players to help fill out the depth chart. They are the unsung heroes of division titles and Super Bowls alike.
Ben Bredeson is one of those unsung heroes. He’s more than earned his keep this year. He’s a part of one of the best units in football.
And he’s better than you think.
