Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucs’ 27-19 win over the Saints on Sunday gave them their fourth straight NFC South division title and a home Wild Card game against the Commanders on Sunday Night Football. Tampa Bay beat Washington in the 2024 season opener, 37-20, but the Commanders wound up the most improved team in the NFL and finished 12-5 thanks to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
What’s At Stake For The Bucs
Bucs HC Todd Bowles, OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R
Now that the playoffs are here, it’s win or go home for every team in the quest for the Super Bowl. But since the bye week, the Bucs have been in playoff mode, trying to dig out of a 4-6 hole since Week 12. Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams in the league, going 6-1 down the stretch to finish 10-7, which is a one-win improvement over last year. The Bucs beat another NFC East team in the home Wild Card game a year ago, getting a 32-9 victory over the 11-win Eagles.
Now it’s the 12-win Commanders who come back to Tampa Bay for a rematch against the Bucs, who got a win over Washington in Week 1. Making the playoffs for the third time in a row under head coach Todd Bowles likely enhanced his job security, especially after finishing with double-digit wins and another strong finish. But the team could be expecting Bowles to at least advance to the NFC Divisional round like the Bucs did last year before losing in Detroit.
An upset on Sunday night, combined by other teams’ interest in offensive coordinator Liam Coen, could prompt the Glazers to opt for Coen over Bowles, especially if the defense is the culprit in the loss. There’s a very good chance Bowles returns next year, especially if the team can retain Coen with a pay raise, but it’s not 100% certain if Tampa Bay loses to Washington on Sunday night.
What’s At Stake For The Commanders
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Photo by: USA Today
Dan Quinn has done a remarkable job in his first year with the Commanders, a team that had the second overall pick in the NFL Draft this past April. Quinn, a veteran head coach, has taken Washington to runner-up status in the NFC East behind 13-4 Philadelphia with a 12-5 record. The Commanders were fortunate that the Bears opted for quarterback Caleb Williams instead of Jayden Daniels, whom Washington selected with the No. 2 pick.
Daniels has been the catalyst on offense to make Kliff Kingsbury offense go. The league’s best dual threat quarterback not named Lamar Jackson, Daniels passed for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions while rushing for 891 yards and six touchdowns while averaging six yards per carry. Daniels, who made the Pro Bowl over Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, completed 69% of his passes and can win from the pocket or hurt teams with his legs on scrambles.
The Commanders are playing with house money in this game as nobody expected Washington to make the playoffs this year, let alone win 12 games. Quinn’s troops should come to Tampa Bay loose and free on Sunday night, as well as looking for some revenge for their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, 37-20.
The Bucs Win If…
Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay is 9-1 win scoring first this year, so an early touchdown or Chase McLaughlin field goal should bode well for the Bucs on Sunday night. Yet the team was 0-6 when not scoring first prior to last week’s 27-19 victory over New Orleans. Tampa Bay finally overcame that distinction, but getting an early lead has been a positive sign for Todd Bowles and Co. throughout the year, so a fast start would certainly help.
Tampa Bay has done a terrible job of creating takeaways on defense this year and only has seven interceptions. The Bucs will need to not only do their best to contain Jayden Daniels, but also try to get him to turn the ball over. Washington’s two primary weapons in the passing game are 1,000-yard receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Zach Ertz. The Bucs need to double McLaurin as much as they can and do a better job of defending the middle of the field where Ertz operates.
On offense, the Bucs must run the ball effectively to win. Washington has the No. 30 run defense, allowing an average of 137.5 yards, so Bucky Irving needs a big day on the ground. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has a pair of dangerous weapons in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan to throw to, in addition to a trio of tight end targets and Irving and Rachaad White as well. All he has to do is not turn the ball over and the Bucs offense should generate close to 30 points.
The Commanders Win If…
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and RB Brian Robinson Jr. – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs have the worst turnover differential of all the NFC playoff teams at minus-5. That means Tampa Bay has turned the ball over five more times than their opponents throughout the season. Washington comes into Sunday’s game with a plus-1 turnover differential. It is trite and obvious to suggest that whichever team wins the turnover battle wins the game, but that very well could be the case in this Wild Card matchup.
Washington only has seven interceptions on the year, but if Quinn’s defense can force Mayfield into an interception or two it could go a long way towards an upset on Sunday night. Mayfield threw four touchdowns and no interceptions in the 37-20 Week 1 win in Tampa Bay to start the 2024 campaign.
Offensively, the Commanders need to be balanced and that means getting Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler and Chris Rodriguez Jr. going in the running game – not just Jayden Daniels scrambling. Tampa Bay has the league’s fourth-best run defense, allowing just 97.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bucs will try to make the Commanders one dimensional and then blitz Daniels. But if Washington can successfully run the ball it will have an advantage – perhaps a winning advantage.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense
Bucs RB Bucky Irving vs. Commanders Run Defense
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Commanders have a star-studded defense built by head coach Dan Quinn. He inherited defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, who are two of the league’s best, but he added linebackers Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Dante Fowler Jr., who leads the team in sacks with 10.5, in free agency. Yet for all the talent that Washington has up front, Quinn’s unit has the league’s 30th-ranked run defense, which allows 137.5 yards per game.
The Bucs have a 1,000-yard running back in rookie Bucky Irving, who burst onto the scene with a 31-yard jaunt against the Commanders in the 2024 season opener. He’s only gotten better since rushing for 62 yards on nine carries in his NFL debut. Irving finished his rookie season with three 100-yard games and three other games with at least 80 yards on the ground. He’ll need to roll for around 80-100 yards on Sunday night to help Tampa Bay win.
The Bucs may have the best and most athletic offensive line in the league led by Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs. Rookie center Graham Barton, who was Tampa Bay’s first-round pick, got his NFL initiation by going up against Allen and Payne in the season opener. He’s had his share of ups and downs as he’s transitioned to center in the pro ranks and Barton’s level of play in the Wild Card game could determine how successful Irving is between the tackles against Washington.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense
Bucs Secondary vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
Bucs DT Vita Vea and Commanders WR Terry McLaurin – Photo by: USA Today
Terry McLaurin is Washington’s game-breaker on offense. The six-year pro finished the 2024 season with 82 catches for 1,096 yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns. He’s the primary threat in Washington’s vertical passing game and Jayden Daniels’ favorite target, evidenced by a team-high 117 targets. He primarily lines up on the left side of the formation as the team’s flanker, and that could pose some serious problems for Tampa Bay on Sunday night.
Jamel Dean has been dealing with a knee injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. As a result, second-year cornerback Josh Hayes has started and struggled. He has a 57.6 coverage grade filling in for Dean this year, according to Pro Football Focus, and has allowed three touchdowns, including one last week to Saints receiver Dante Pettis.
Will Dean be ready to play this week? Or will head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles assign top cornerback Zyon McCollum to line up against McLaurin wherever he goes? He’s done that on some rare occasions in the past, but typically with former cornerback Carlton Davis III. It will be interesting to see how Bowles tries to defend McLaurin and how much he doubles him with safety help over the top. Bowles can’t have McLaurin occupy two defenders on every play due to the threat of tight end Zach Ertz across the middle and Jayden Daniels’ scrambling ability.
