With the Falcons owning the tiebreaker in the NFC South race, it feels like the Bucs are playing a playoff game week in and week out these days. Because at this point, any Tampa Bay loss could mean Atlanta evening things up in the standings with a win, which would mean re-taking the lead from the three-time defending division champions because of that tiebreaker. So, how would things unfold in Week 16?
Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: USA Today
There’s no doubt that the Falcons came in with the more favorable matchup this weekend, as they hosted the 2-12 Giants while the Bucs hit the road for a Sunday Night Football contest against an improving 6-8 Cowboys team that had won three of their last four games. If Todd Bowles and his team could get through Sunday with their NFC South lead intact, they would be able to set up a clinching scenario in Week 17, as a win over the Panthers and a Falcons loss to the 10-5 Commanders would wrap up a fourth straight division title.
The Falcons made a big change this week in benching veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins for No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. ahead of their Week 16 home game against the 2-12 Giants. Atlanta easily took care of business against New York, winning 34-7.
The rookie quarterback finished 18-of-27 for 202 yards and an interception, leaving Bijan Robinson and the Falcons defense to do the work. Robinson ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries while the defense chipped in with two pick-sixes in addition to holding the Giants scoreless for the final 44:53 of the game.
The Atlanta win during Sunday’s 1:00 window put some pressure back on Tampa Bay, which knew going into its Sunday Night Football matchup against Dallas knowing it needed a win to stay on top of the NFC South heading into Christmas. But instead of keeping their win streak alive, the Bucs kept their primetime losing streak alive instead, playing an all-around sloppy game before a late comeback attempt fell short in a 26-24 loss.
Tampa Bay’s defense gave up too many explosive plays and the offense was too careless with the football in what turned into another disappointing showing under the bright lights of primetime.
So now, the Falcons are back atop the NFC South and control their own playoff destiny with two weeks to play in the regular season.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Here’s an updated look at the NFC South standings through Week 16:
Atlanta Falcons 8-7 (4-1 in the NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-7 (2-2 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-9 (2-3 in the NFC South)*
Carolina Panthers 4-11 (1-3 in the NFC South)
*Saints still to play at Packers on Monday Night Football
The Falcons can clinch the division next Sunday if the Bucs lose to the Panthers and they go on to beat the Commanders on Sunday Night Football. But if Tampa Bay can get back on track and beat Carolina early on Sunday, it’ll put similar pressure on Atlanta heading into its own primetime matchup – essentially serving as a reverse of what happened this week.
The simple fact is that the Bucs will now need some help in the next two weeks to win a fourth straight division title. First off, they need to take care of themselves and beat the last-place and third-pace teams in the division at home. If they can do that, they need the Falcons to lose one of their remaining two games in order to win the South and host a playoff game.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the top two contenders in the NFC South:
Week 17: Bucs – vs. Panthers (4-11); Falcons – at Commanders (10-5)
Week 18: Bucs – vs. Saints (5-9); Falcons – vs. Panthers (4-11)
Tampa Bay’s best hope may be next week, assuming it can put together a better showing than it did last time it saw Carolina and win that game to get to 9-7. Washington is riding high after beating the Eagles on Sunday, with Jayden Daniels throwing a late touchdown pass to keep the Birds from clinching the NFC East. Plus, the Commanders have their own playoff aspirations to play for, as they can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons next Sunday.
A Commanders win following a Bucs win would have Todd Bowles’ team right back in first place with a win-and-in scenario ahead of it in Week 18.
Where The Bucs Now Stand In The NFC Playoff Picture
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR
Tampa Bay’s best path to the playoffs is still through the NFC South, but there’s a narrow path in the NFC Wild Card race as well. Next week’s game between the Commanders and Falcons is doubly important in that way really, but more on that in a minute.
First, let’s look at the rest of the NFC playoff picture.
Just one week after the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed opened back up with the Lions’ loss to the Bills, it reversed course. The Lions handled the Bears with ease, winning 34-17 to get back on track and hold on to the top spot. Elsewhere in the 1:00 window, the Eagles were outscored 22-6 in the fourth quarter on their way to a 36-33 loss to the Commanders.
Not only did that cost Philadelphia a chance to clinch the NFC East, but Nick Sirianni’s team also fell back to a game behind Detroit for the No. 1 seed.
Also in the 1:00 window, the Rams maintained their spot atop the NFC West with a 19-9 win over the Jets. They also got help elsewhere, both in the 1:00 and 4:00 windows. First, it was the Cardinals losing 36-30 to the Panthers in overtime, then it was the the Seahawks losing 27-24 to the Vikings and the 49ers falling to the Dolphins by a score of 29-17. Los Angeles now has a full game on Seattle, and both Arizona and San Francisco are eliminated from contention.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson – Photo by: USA Today
With that win over the Seahawks, the Vikings kept pace with the Lions in the race for the NFC North crown, as well as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They technically control their own destiny the rest of the way, as they do meet the Lions in Week 18.
For now, Minnesota remains the No. 5 seed, and with the way the picture currently looks, Sam Darnold and Co. would be headed to Atlanta to face Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons on Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Packers are still in possession of the No. 6 seed, though they don’t play their Week 16 game until Monday night when they host the Saints. A win will keep them in that second Wild Card spot, while a loss would allow the Commanders back into the picture for that spot. With the way everything currently stands, that No. 6 seed would be headed west to face Matthew Stafford and the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend.
So, back to the Commanders. They got a five-touchdown day from Jayden Daniels to come back and beat the Eagles late, getting them their 10th win of the season and preventing Philly from clinching the NFC East for now. Washington now has a two-game lead on the potential Wild Card teams behind them in the playoff hunt. Dan Quinn’s team can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons next week, which would have good and bad consequences for the Bucs.
As discussed before, a Washington win over Atlanta combined with a Tampa Bay win over Carolina would put Tampa Bay back in position to win the NFC South. But that Washington win would also knock Tampa Bay out of Wild Card contention, leaving the division as the only path. On the flip side, a Bucs win paired with a Falcons win over the Commanders would hurt the Bucs’ division chances, but it would also put the No. 7 seed back on the table heading into Week 18.
Because in that scenario, a Tampa Bay win over New Orleans on the season’s final weekend combined with another Washington loss – to Dallas – would have both the Bucs and Commanders at 10-7. The Bucs won when the two teams met in Week 1, meaning they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker and sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s final Wild Card team.
Fox Sports’ Greg Auman put this simply:
(a Falcons loss to the Panthers in Week 18 would also do the trick)
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 23, 2024
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Here’s a look at the full NFC Playoff Picture through Week 16:
1. Lions – 13-2 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 12-3 (NFC East leader)
3. Rams – 9-6 (NFC West leader)
4. Falcons – 8-7 (NFC South leader)
5. Vikings – 13-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Packers – 10-4 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Commanders – 10-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. Bucs – 8-7
9. Seahawks – 8-7
*Packers still to play vs. Saints on Monday Night Football
NFL.com currently gives the Bucs a 51% chance to make the playoffs.
The Bucs have plenty of work to do themselves, as they need to beat the Panthers and Saints to finish 10-7. As Auman outlined, the two routes from there are:
- Falcons lose one of their remaining games (Bucs would clinch NFC South)
- Commanders lose their final two games (Bucs would clinch NFC’s No. 7 seed)
Tampa Bay is back at home on Sunday, hosting 4-11 Carolina with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
