The NBA Finals: It’s why we do all of this.
Zach Lowe makes this point repeatedly in his podcast, and it’s a point I wish more people made as frequently as he does. All the trade rumors, the mock drafts, the free agency intrigue, the coaching carousel – it all churns along for the sole purpose of winning the NBA championship.
Thirty teams play 82 games (in-season tournament notwithstanding). Sixteen teams play a few more. Two play four brutal rounds of postseason basketball. One wins. Twenty-nine disappointed teams start over.
For the next couple weeks – or maybe just a week, depending on how you feel about this year’s matchup – the basketball universe will be set in two of the league’s glamor markets: Oklahoma City and Indianapolis. For the record: I do not care at all, not even a little bit, about market size or market share or TV ratings or streaming bundles or anything that isn’t related directly to the product on the floor. I am not an NBA shareholder. I am not involved with any of the league’s business or broadcast partners. I am a basketball fan with an internet column, and I am pumped to see the perimeter pitbulls on the Thunder square off against the controlled frenzy of the Pacers.
My rational basketball brain tells me the Thunder are going to roll in this series. They are 8-1 in the playoffs in games not featuring Nikola Jokic. They have the most complete team. There are no gaping holes on the roster. They don’t play a single subpar defender that you can work into screens and switches. If the Dort/Caruso/Wallace triumvirate makes enough open spot-up 3s, the Thunder are essentially unbeatable. They also have the league MVP.
If I were to wager on this series, the safe bet would be Thunder in five, but I would be tempted to bet a Thunder sweep.
That said!
This Pacers run has completely defied logic, yet it seems completely inevitable when watching them play over the last few weeks. I don’t think there was a single national basketball voice who picked the Pacers to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, but it’s impossible to envision anyone else here. This squad is fully deserving of its spot in the Finals, and it would be foolish to bet against any team that is equally comfortable playing with a 20-point lead and a 20-point deficit.
If one were to try to design a squad from scratch to take on this tenacious Thunder attack, it would be to create a roster with depth, athleticism, shooting from multiple spots on the floor, and – most importantly – low, low turnovers. The Pacers’ superpower lies in its ability to play this frenetic, tempo-pushing style while keeping the turnovers near record lows. Teams with Indiana’s turnover rate typically play a high-isolation, low-tempo style centered on ball control and maximizing possessions. Indy flies around like a group of crazed sprinters, but the Pacers somehow maintain control of the basketball.
This is Tyrese Haliburton’s ultimate test. Forget all the tired “is he a superstar?” chatter that the laziest pundits pivot toward. Can Haliburton continue to push the pace without turning the ball over against the best collection of individual perimeter defenders in the NBA? If Haliburton can work his magic and steal a game in OKC – much like he did in Game 1’s miracle in MSG – we could be in for one heck of a series.
I am personally rooting for the chaos agents from Indy to keep this series close and interesting. It is good for the overall health of the league for Midwest/mid-market teams to play aesthetically pleasing, competitive basketball well into June. But it seems like such a tall order. Oklahoma City has no problem maintaining Indiana’s pace. The Thunder might be the only other team in the league with more quality depth, so Indy will struggle to run them ragged the way they did Milwaukee/Cleveland/New York. If OKC tilts the turnover battle in their direction, it’s over in four.
Indy has a Plan A – run, shoot, go, sprint, go, run, shoot again, sprint again. Plan B, is, well, repeat Plan A. OKC has so many different looks to throw any opponent in any scenario. If they want to lean on bully ball with Isaiah Hartenstein/Chet Holmgren lineups to take advantage of Indy’s lack of bulk, they can do that. If Myles Turner has the series of his life and Indy can get away with playing small alongside him, OKC simply rotates Hartenstein out of the lineup for more Holmgren at the 5 and additional minutes for Alex Caruso and/or Cason Wallace on the wing.
Haliburton will constantly face a fresh, rested, eager, and handsy defender. Lu Dort will start on him, and then Caruso, and then Wallace, and then maybe a little Jalen Williams, and then maybe even a little Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Every perimeter player on OKC can credibly guard Haliburton.
Even if the Pacers hit 40% of their 3s for the series, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they get enough stops on OKC for it to matter. If these games come down to late-game execution – which is often the case in the NBA playoffs – OKC simply has more options, more top-end talent, and more ways to get stops when it matters.
I love the Pacers. This has been one of the most enjoyable playoff runs in recent memory. Rick Carlisle has solidified his place among the sport’s very best and brightest coaches, and this team appears poised for a multi-season run with this core. That said – you can say the same about OKC and even a bit more.
Thunder in five.
