The Boston Red Sox made a major splash by signing Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract, bringing one of the most decorated third basemen of the last decade to Fenway Park. While Bregman’s pedigree is undeniable—he’s a two-time World Series champion, a Gold Glove winner, and one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball—this deal comes with significant risks. The high average annual value (AAV) and Bregman’s declining power numbers raise concerns, making this contract feel like a reach and an overpay.
Bregman’s deal is uniquely structured: $40 million annually for three seasons, with opt-outs after the second and third years. While this gives the Red Sox a potential short-term offensive boost, it also means they are paying top-tier players who haven’t played at an elite level since 2019. The contract structure suggests Boston had to overpay on a per-year basis to lure him away from teams offering longer deals, such as the six-year, $171 million offer reportedly made by the Detroit Tigers.
From a financial standpoint, the deal limits the Red Sox’s long-term risk, which is a plus. If Bregman performs well, he could opt out after two years, allowing Boston to reset. However, if he underperforms or continues his recent downward trend, the Red Sox could be stuck with an aging player on a hefty contract.
Alex Bregman is still solid, but not a superstar anymore
At his peak, Bregman was an MVP-caliber player, finishing second in AL MVP voting in 2019 while hitting 41 home runs and posting a 1.015 OPS. However, injuries and a decline in power have prevented him from reaching those heights in recent seasons. Since 2020, Bregman has struggled to maintain elite production. In 2024, he hit .260 AVG, with 26 HR, 75 RBI, and an .801 OPS with an OPS+ of 118. The last five seasons, he’s hit 92 home runs (compared to 99 in his first four which is still very close), however, he has a declining walk rate, which was once a defining aspect of his game.
Despite these concerns, Bregman remains an above-average hitter with strong plate discipline and a Gold Glove-caliber glove. He provides the Red Sox with a veteran presence and postseason experience, having played in 99 playoff games—a valuable asset for a team trying to return to contention.
Boston’s roster needed a right-handed bat to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup, and Bregman’s ability to hit well at Fenway Park (.375 career average in 21 games) made him an appealing fit. He’s expected to play second base, allowing Rafael Devers to remain at third. While he has limited experience at second, his defensive instincts should allow him to transition smoothly.
However, the Red Sox had bigger needs—notably pitching depth—and it’s questionable whether committing $40 million per year to Bregman was the best allocation of resources. They made notable additions to the pitching staff in Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Aroldis Chapman, but their rotation still lacks a true ace.
Additionally, while Bregman’s experience and leadership are assets, this contract doesn’t match the long-term financial flexibility Boston usually prefers. The opt-outs could work against them, potentially leaving them scrambling for a replacement in 2026 or 2027 if he departs early.
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The Red Sox overpaid for Alex Bregman
Most projections had Bregman receiving six to seven years at $170-190 million, making the shorter, high-AAV structure stand out. His deal exceeds expectations in terms of annual salary but falls well short in overall value. Given his recent decline, it’s fair to wonder if the Red Sox bid against themselves.
For reference; Manny Machado signed a 11-year, $350 million extension with the Padres. Nolan Arenado’s contract averages $32.5 million per year over its duration. And Xander Bogaerts, another former Red Sox star, signed a 11-year, $280 million deal.
Compared to these contracts, Bregman’s $40 million per year is excessive—especially considering his declining numbers. Boston’s urgency to make a big move likely played a role in the overpay.
Final Verdict: C- Grade
The Alex Bregman signing is a calculated risk by the Red Sox, and while it addresses a need, it’s not an ideal contract. The high AAV makes it a reach, especially considering his recent decline. The opt-outs could backfire, and Bregman hasn’t been an MVP-level player in years. While he’s still a valuable contributor, this move feels like an overpay for a player on the downside of his prime.
