“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Dylan Harper is a 19-year-old guard from New Jersey who averaged 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4 assists for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. He is expected to be a top-three pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 2.
NBA-Specific Skills
You ever watch someone dribble a basketball for 10 seconds and know beyond any shadow of a doubt that player has serious game?
There is an ease and a comfort with how that player handles the ball. It seems like the ball has been an extension of that player’s hand for as long as they’ve been able to walk. Through the fakes, the changes of pace, the crosses, the double crosses – the ball is always where that player wants it. It’s control. It’s polish.
It’s Dylan Harper.
Harper approaches the game as if he was a 10-year veteran. Despite not being the most explosive guard in this year’s class, nobody can seem to stay in front of him. Harper can get anywhere he wants to go. He weaves through defenses like a shifty southpaw boxer, jabbing, feinting, ducking, and ultimately landing body shots at the rim.
Harper projects as a foul magnet at the next level. Look for him to live at the foul line and possibly enter the “ethical basketball” debate alongside James Harden, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, and other contact seekers. Regardless how you feel about it, these kinds of players often find themselves on All-NBA Teams and All-Star rosters.
Harper is the kind of guard who can both organize an offense and play off the ball as a secondary slasher/creator. It’s rare to find a player at his size (6-6, 215) who can do both. That size and strength also grants Harper the kind of defensive switchability/versatility that will allow him to hold up and perhaps even excel on that end of the floor.
Much like Ron, his NBA champion father, Dylan Harper brings several desirable skills to the table and projects as an ideal fifth starter at worst or a multiyear All-Star at best. Some scouts see SGA when they see Harper, which seems ludicrous at the moment, but remember – SGA wasn’t SGA when he was drafted in 2018.
On a scale from 1-10, Harper’s polish and versatility rates at a 9.
Fatal Flaws
Rutgers sure lost a lot of games, didn’t they?
Forgive me, but I will always be at least slightly skeptical of prospects projected to go at/near the top of any draft who struggled to actually, you know, win games. I get it – context matters, and Rutgers didn’t have a lot of talent or support around Harper and Ace Bailey (to be covered later). But this is a team that seemed to get awfully comfortable with losing.
College basketball has next to no relationship with NBA basketball, and I fully expect Harper’s skillset to translate much better to the skill/spacing of the professional game, but c’mon. After starting the season 4-0 against lower competition, the Scarlet Knights never won more than two games in a row the rest of the season.
The repetitive losing stuck in my mind when evaluating Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz, too. I’m just mentioning it. Feels relevant.
Also, Harper won’t wow anyone in the athletic tests. He’s not a subpar athlete, but he’s not an eye-popping one, either. Will his start-stop-shifty approach translate to a league as athletic and sophisticated as the NBA? I think it will, but it’s something to monitor, particularly as Harper gets his feet wet.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Harper’s funky college season and relative lack of explosion rates at a 7. No reason to pass on him, but something to consider.
Pre-NBA Setting
It was obvious right away. Ron Harper’s kid could ball.
He dominated the New Jersey prep circuit before joining forces with fellow uber-prospect Ace Bailey to stay close to home and elevate Rutgers to the national conversation.
No 15-17 college team ever received more coverage.
Harper’s individual brilliance popped despite the up-and-down season and his highlight reel makes him look like a future All-Star. But winning basketball is about more than the highlight reel.
Perhaps his single-best pre-NBA accomplishment came in the McDonald’s All-American Game, where he won co-MVP with Derik Queen (also coming later) and looked like a superstar among future stars. But it’s hard to really dig deep in a prospect’s evaluation when we have yet to see him in a real game with stakes.
On a scale from 1-10, Harper’s pre-NBA career rates at a 5.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Let’s make this quick: Dylan Harper is likely going to be drafted with the No. 2 pick. Who will make that pick? Let’s see.
The odds-on favorite to select Harper: The San Antonio Spurs. Sure, they’d much rather have Cooper Flagg, but Harper is an intriguing addition to the De’Aaron Fox/Stephon Castle/Devin Vassell backcourt. Castle and Harper each have the size/length to defend bigger players (Castle in particular has All-Defensive Team potential) and all three players bring enough ballhandling and creativity (Harper especially) to complement Fox.
Is it a seamless fit? Not necessarily. Both Fox and Harper are more comfortable with the ball in their hands. It could be to Harper’s long-term benefit, however, to learn how to play off the ball in Fox-heavy lineups and shift into playmaker mode when Fox sits. Teams in today’s NBA need as many creative ballhandlers as possible to poke holes in the defense.
The only scenario where Harper plays elsewhere is if the No. 2 pick is involved in a deal for a player like that guy in Milwaukee who may or may not be available. The Phoenix Suns would sure love to snag this pick as part of a Kevin Durant deal, but that seems unlikely at best.
On a scale from 1-10, Harper’s situational fit in San Antonio is an 8.5 – not a perfect 10, but it’s fascinating all the same. New Spurs coach Mitch Johnson will have every opportunity to flex his creativity with all the young potential surrounding Victor Wembanyama.
