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The Tampa Bay Rays certainly didn’t live up to their expectations last season but will be looking to take a step forward in the 2025 season. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Tampa Bay Rays over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Tampa Bay Rays endured a disappointing 2024 season, finishing 80-82 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Offensive struggles plagued the team, ranking 29th in runs scored and OPS. Despite solid pitching, particularly post-All-Star break, midseason trades of key players like Arozarena and Eflin signaled a shift towards rebuilding for future success.
This year, the win total is set at 81.5 games for the Rays which seems to be right on point as to where they were last season with the Rays looking to be even more competitive in 2025.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 81.5 Wins: +100
Under 81.5 Wins: -122
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Tampa Bay Rays are poised to bounce back in 2025, making the over 81.5 wins an attractive bet for savvy MLB bettors. After a disappointing 80-82 record in 2024, the Rays have made strategic moves to strengthen their roster and are set to benefit from the return of key players. The rotation, in particular, looks formidable with the comeback of ace Shane McClanahan from Tommy John surgery and the continued development of promising young arms like Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot. The Rays’ pitching staff, which ranked 10th in MLB with a 3.82 ERA last season, should only improve with a full season of Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. This deep rotation gives Tampa Bay a solid foundation to compete in the tough AL East.
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Offensively, while the Rays struggled in 2024, there’s reason for optimism. The addition of Ha-Seong Kim and Danny Jansen should provide a boost to the lineup, while a potential breakout from top prospect Junior Caminero could be a game-changer. The Rays have consistently shown an ability to maximize player potential, and with Josh Lowe looking to rebound from an injury-plagued 2024, the offense has room for significant improvement. Moreover, the Rays’ farm system ranks fifth in MLB, providing depth and potential midseason reinforcements. With their track record of developing talent and the return to health of key players, the Rays are well-positioned to surpass the 81.5 win mark and potentially challenge for a playoff spot in 2025.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Tampa Bay Rays are facing a challenging 2025 season, making the under 81.5 wins an attractive bet for MLB bettors. Coming off a disappointing 80-82 record in 2024, which marked their first losing season since 2017, the Rays are confronting several obstacles that could hinder their performance. The most significant hurdle is their displacement from Tropicana Field due to hurricane damage, forcing them to play their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the New York Yankees’ spring training complex. This unfamiliar environment, combined with a road-heavy early schedule, puts the Rays at a distinct disadvantage. The change in venue is likely to favor hitters more than pitchers, potentially exposing weaknesses in the Rays’ traditionally pitching-centric strategy. Additionally, the team’s offensive struggles from 2024, where they ranked 29th in runs scored and 28th in home runs, have not been adequately addressed in the offseason.
Furthermore, the Rays are competing in an increasingly tough AL East division, where other teams have made significant improvements. The loss of key players like Wander Franco and Tyler Glasnow, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding returning injured pitchers, adds to the team’s challenges. While the Rays have a history of exceeding expectations, their current win total of 81.5 seems optimistic given these circumstances. The team is relying heavily on unproven prospects and young talent to develop quickly, which is a risky proposition in a competitive division. With projections from respected sources like FanGraphs putting them between 85 and 87 wins, and considering their overperformance in one-run games last season, the under on 81.5 wins appears to be the more prudent bet for the 2025 Rays.
Final Rays Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Tampa Bay Rays face significant challenges in 2025, making the under on 81.5 wins a compelling bet. Displaced from Tropicana Field due to hurricane damage, they’ll play home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, potentially impacting their performance. The team’s 2024 offensive struggles (ranking 29th in runs scored) haven’t been fully addressed. While the return of key pitchers like Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz is promising, the Rays face a tough AL East division. Their 80-82 record in 2024 was bolstered by overperformance in one-run games, suggesting potential regression. Given these factors and a road-heavy late-season schedule, the Rays may struggle to surpass 81.5 wins in 2025.
Final Rays Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 81.5 (-122)
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