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Woods, Richardson, and Lively face off in the finale! The Twins have struggled this season, but have won four of their last five games. The Guardians are playing well, but need to bounce back after recent losses. These teams have split the previous two, with Minnesota winning Game 1 and Cleveland winning Game 2. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Guardians prediction and pick.
Twins-Guardians Projected Starters
Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Ben Lively
Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2) with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on four hits with zero walks and seven strikeouts through 5.1 innings.
Away Splits: (0-2) 5.79 ERA
Ben Lively (1-2) with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed four runs on six hits with three walks and four strikeouts through five innings.
Home Splits: (0-1) 4.50 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: -102
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-194)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How to Watch Twins vs. Guardians
Time: 1:10 pm ET/10:10 am PT
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TV: MLB Network/CLEG/MNNT
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Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Twins were 82-80 last season and were very inconsistent, and they have been inconsistent with a 13-17 record and have won four of their previous five games. The Twins’ offense was just above average last season, but they have been awful this season and near the bottom of the league again. The Twins were below average on the mound last year and are in the middle of the league this season. Despite their overall struggles as a unit, Ty France, Willi Castro, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Harrison Bader, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, and Carlos Correa are some notable names on this Minnesota offense. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez are the standouts on the mound and need to be the difference makers. The Twins have struggled big time.
The Twins are starting Simeon Woods Richardson on the mound. He has a 2-2 record, a 4.07 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP. He has allowed 11 runs on 29 hits with six walks and 26 strikeouts across 24.1 innings in five appearances this season. He also has a K/BB ratio of 4.3. Woods Richardson has been the epitome of inconsistency this season, with the Twins going 3-2, alternating wins and losses in his starts, and winning his last start.
The Twins’ offense has struggled after being solid last season. They were 13th in batting average with a .246, but they have fallen to .233 this year. France and Buxton have emerged as the Twins’ best batters this season. France leads in batting average with .267, RBI with 18, OBP at .345, and total hits with 28. Then, Buxton leads the team in home runs with six. The Twins have been unimpressive on offense, and this might be a difficult matchup against Lively for the Guardians in this game.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians were one of the best teams in the MLB last season and finished with a 92-69 record. They are 16-13 this season and have gone 2-3 in their last five games. Their bats were underwhelming the previous season and have still struggled this year. They had one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB last year, and they have started this year playing solidly as well. Brayan Rocchio, Carlos Santana, Lane Thomas (out with an injury), Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, and Steven Kwan have been key to their offense this year. Tanner Bibee is the best pitcher on the roster, but Logan Allen and Gavin Williams have also been solid. The Guardians have potential, but have split this series against the Twins.
The Guardians are starting Lively on the mound. He has a 1-2 record, a 4.40 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. He has allowed 15 runs on 30 hits with 11 walks and 23 strikeouts through 30.2 innings across his six starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 2.1. The Guardians are also 4-2 in their six starts. Lively has been inconsistent, but the Guardians won games when he started. This is an intriguing matchup because the Twins don’t have much to be impressed about behind the plate.
The Guardians have talent behind the plate on offense, even after the offseason. They were 19th in team batting average at .222 and are at .236 this year. Kwan and Manzardo have been the best players on the offense. Kwan leads in batting average at .333, in OBP at .382, and in total hits with 38. Then, Manzardo leads in home runs with eight and RBI with 19. The Guardians have depth and balance across this lineup, which can cause some issues for Woods Richardson. He has been solid, but unimpressive, so this is a key matchup.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The pitching duel is about the same, with both Woods Richardson and Lively being better than bad but not impressive. The Guardians have the better offense, and I think they can cover and win this game outright because of that home-field advantage.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-194)
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