TORONTO — Within a matter of days, the path ahead for the Toronto Blue Jays should come into focus.
The team has until Feb. 17 to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and if no deal is in place by Monday, the 25-year-old slugger intends to hit free agency in the next off-season, when he’d likely be the top player available.
For the Blue Jays, the stakes are high. With the right offer, they have a chance to lock up a young MVP candidate to a team record contract. Or, they could begin the season without a deal in place, and considerable uncertainty about what’s next for the franchise.
Of course there’s a lot at stake for Guerrero Jr., too. A deal now would make him one of the highest-paid players in MLB history and set him up to become one of the most iconic Blue Jays in the half century or so of the team’s existence. Or, he can test free agency less than a year from now, when the likes of the Mets or Red Sox might be motivated to spend big.
With less than a week remaining before the deadline, let’s examine these negotiations in greater detail, starting with the potential risks and rewards for each side:
As with any deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the investment could backfire with enough injuries or regression. First basemen such as Ryan Howard, Chris Davis and Prince Fielder all signed nine-figure deals and each averaged fewer than 2.0 wins above replacement per season beginning with their age-27 seasons (the first year of Guerrero Jr.’s free agency).
Granted, Howard and Davis are flawed comps for Guerrero Jr., but any measured front office must be aware of this risk, even if they ultimately decide that the potential rewards still justify the investment.
Of course, there’s another kind of risk, too — the risk of letting Guerrero Jr. go only to see him finish his career elsewhere and enter the Hall of Fame with, say, the Rangers or Red Sox.
Guerrero Jr. is a special player, and it’s easy to forget he’s still so young — younger than reigning Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, for instance. When Aaron Judge was 25, he had played one big-league season, whereas Guerrero Jr. has played six. All of which means Guerrero Jr. should still have years and years of elite offensive production ahead.
There’s no guarantee he’s a Hall of Famer in the making, but if you let him walk in free agency, you don’t get the right to find out. Pay him now, and he might be wearing a Blue Jays cap on his Cooperstown plaque someday, ideally after winning a championship in Toronto.
And while the likes of Howard and Davis represent cautionary tales, they never controlled the strike zone the way Guerrero Jr. does or succeeded against big-league pitching at such a young age. He’s a complete hitter, not a one-year wonder, and even if the Fielder example is a reminder that injuries can strike unexpectedly, there’s rarely reward without risk in baseball.
Other bat-first players fared much better over the decade spanning their age 27-36 seasons:
• Vladimir Guerrero Sr.: 3.5 WAR per season
• David Ortiz: 3.7 WAR per season
• Jose Bautista: 3.8 WAR per season
And there’s room for even more production. These first basemen all combined excellent strike zone judgment with power like Guerrero Jr., and they all performed at elite levels through their mid-30s:
• Miguel Cabrera: 4.3 WAR per season from age 27-36
• Joey Votto: 4.6 WAR per season from age 27-36
• Paul Goldschmidt: 4.8 WAR per season from age 27-36
• Freddie Freeman: 4.9 WAR per season from age 27-present
• Albert Pujols: 5.5 WAR per season from age 27-36
If Guerrero Jr.’s next decade looks like that, spending hundreds of millions now would prove to be a great investment.
If Guerrero Jr. signs now and has a monster year in 2025, there’s risk he’ll have left some money on the table. Conversely, if he doesn’t sign and disappoints at the plate due to injury or underperformance, he could be looking at far less guaranteed money, perhaps a pillow contract with opt-outs before a second chance at a big payday.
The Blue Jays’ final offer will be for hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s a meaningful reward, as is the chance to build a legacy in an environment he likes. Depending on where the Blue Jays’ final offer lands, Guerrero Jr. could sign one of the largest contracts in MLB history, which would also mean pushing things forward for fellow players.
It was just last month that the sides avoided arbitration on a one-year, $28.5-million deal for 2025, avoiding arbitration. That contract showed the sides are capable of getting on the same page, but the previous year they went to an arbitration hearing, which Guerrero Jr. won.
The Blue Jays have discussed extensions with Guerrero Jr. multiple times over the years, with their latest offer of $340 million “not even close” to what he’s seeking, according to comments the first baseman made in discussion with Abriendo Sports in December.
Finding comparables for Guerrero Jr. isn’t easy. Deals for the likes of Pujols, Votto, Cabrera and Fielder were signed too long ago to be relevant. Even Bryce Harper’s deal is six years old now, and he was an outfielder when he signed it.
Freeman signed more recently, but he was 32 when he hit free agency, not 26. Pete Alonso is both older and a less complete hitter than Guerrero Jr., so that comp doesn’t work either.
Speaking of comps that don’t quite work, there’s a hitter who’s both young (26) and immensely talented (lifetime OPS+ of 160) in Juan Soto, who signed for $765 million over 15 years just a couple months ago. Now, no one is saying Guerrero Jr. is a hitter on that level (lifetime OPS+ of 137), so it’s clear his AAV will sit below $51 million and the total contract value will be substantially lower than Soto’s.
But after Soto’s deal, the next biggest contract in MLB history is Shohei Ohtani’s deal, announced as $700 million but valued at $437,830,563 by the MLBPA. It’s not out of the question that Guerrero Jr.’s next contract could surpass that figure.
Next on the list of biggest contracts after Soto and Ohtani are Mookie Betts ($365 million), Mike Trout ($360 million) and Judge ($360 million). Guerrero Jr. seems well positioned to pass all three. Judge’s AAV of $40 million looks like a fair comp for Guerrero Jr., but that doesn’t answer the question of how many years he gets.
If Guerrero Jr. remains in Toronto long-term, he has a good chance to become the all-time franchise leader in hits (Tony Fernandez, 1,583), home runs (Carlos Delgado, 336), RBI (Delgado, 1,058) and even WAR (Dave Stieb, 56.9).
Presumably a deal with Guerrero Jr. would make the Blue Jays a more appealing destination for others, including Bo Bichette, who has said his preference would be to win alongside Guerrero Jr. in Toronto.
Meanwhile, a deal with Guerrero Jr. would shatter George Springer’s franchise record contract of $150 million.
And Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins will either be known as the front office that extended Guerrero Jr. or the ones who let him go.
In baseball, these negotiations tend to remain unresolved until close to the deadline, and that’s likely the case here. If you’re Guerrero Jr., why accept anything now if there’s a chance of a better offer in three days? And anticipating that approach, the Blue Jays may choose to wait, too. More likely, meaningful talks happen later this week and over the weekend, even if both sides already have a good idea of how far they’ll bend.
Blue Jays fans would breathe a sigh of relief, knowing that an elite hitter is in place for years to come. Yet there would still be plenty of work ahead for an organization that needs to do a better job of surrounding Guerrero Jr. with young talent. No single player is good enough to assure a team of success, as Ohtani’s tenure with the Angels proved.
The season would still begin as usual, with Guerrero Jr. still central to the team’s chances. If the Blue Jays fall out of contention, they’d have no choice but to listen to offers for him in July, even though his trade value would be limited so close to free agency.
If the Blue Jays are contending, they’d hold onto him in the hopes of making a deep playoff run and make him the qualifying offer after the season. He’d then decline and test the market, with the Blue Jays one of 30 teams potentially in the market for his services. Hitting free agency didn’t stop Judge from returning to the Yankees, so a reunion would technically be possible, but the direction of the franchise beyond 2025 would be unclear for the duration of the coming season.
Nothing is done until it’s done, but there certainly seems to be room for a win-win deal here. The Blue Jays can offer one of the biggest contracts in the history of the sport, and Guerrero Jr. can be a young franchise cornerstone to build around for the next decade-plus. Now it’s a question of whether those sides can find enough common ground to find a solution that genuinely benefits everyone involved.
